Town of Mt. Desert, Maine - Comprehensive Plan Update

Communities change. Sometimes this change is obvious – when it is fast or large in scale. Sometimes this change is more subtle. Both types of change will affect our community. Our task is to understand the trends creating these changes so that the Town of Mount Desert can provide adequate facilities and services to its residents and businesses.

This chapter provides a profile of Mount Desert’s population and demographics and discusses the major trends that are creating change.

Mount Desert’s population has fluctuated wildly through the past two centuries. Since the 1840s, a general increase persisted through World War I. After a brief decline, the Roaring 20s and 1930s were times of rapid growth. On the eave of World War II, more than 2,000 lived in Mount Desert year-round.

Following World War II, Mount Desert’s population began three decades of decline. In 1947, a fire burned more than 17,000 acres of Mount Desert Island as well as hundreds of homes and businesses. This fire, in combination with a nationwide migration from rural areas to the major cities eroded the size of our town’s year round population. It wasn’t until the 1960s and 1970s that many of these more rural areas began growing again as greater accessibility made them more attractive and viable places to live.

Between 1990 and 2000, our year-round population grew from 1,889 residents to 2,109 residents (Table 1). This 12% rate of growth significantly outpaced that of the state as a whole and Hancock County. On Mount Desert Island, only Tremont grew faster (16%). Bar Harbor grew by 9% and Southwest Harbor grew by 1%.

New housing units. Between April 2000 (when the Census is recorded) and January 2004, the Town approved 112 building permits. We estimate that approximately half of these housing units are for year-round residents. Therefore, 56 new year-round housing units were added to the town’s housing stock.

Occupancy rates. In 2000, the Census reported that year-round housing units were 95% occupied. We estimate that this occupancy rate has not changed, which means that 53 of the new year-round housing units are occupied by households.

Average Household Size. We estimate that the average household size has decreased only slightly since the 2000 Census (which reported 2.19 persons per household). We estimate that in 2004, there is an average of 2.15 persons per household.

Projecting population change can be difficult in even the best circumstances. Add to that the very large number of seasonal housing units available in a community like ours and these projections become even more difficult. Population projections in our town can vary widely depending on the assumptions that are made about future housing trends.

The Maine State Planning Office projects that our year-round population will reach 2,346 residents by 2015. This represents a rate of growth that is a little lower than the town’s growth rate between 1990 and 2000. The State Planning Office makes its projections based on the town’s recent population growth trends relative to those in Hancock County.

The Comprehensive Plan Committee has used recent trends in the town’s demographic profiles and housing patterns to project the year-round population. Using the following assumptions, we project our year-round population will reach 2,438 by 2015.

New Housing Units. We project that the current rate of 28 new units per year will continue into the future. Using this assumption, we project there will be 420 new housing units between 2000 and 2015. Current trends suggest that approximately one-half of these units will be used for year-round housing and the other half will be used for seasonal housing. Therefore, we project 210 new year-round housing units by 2015.

Conversions. This is the most difficult variable to project. Based on national and regional demographic trends, we project that several of the community’s seasonal housing units will become year-round housing units. Driving this trend is the large number of Baby Boomers that will be retiring in the next decade and moving from urban areas to more rural settings. This trend will be offset somewhat by the conversion of some year-round units into seasonal units. We project the net impact of these conversions will be 50 additional year-round units by 2015.

Occupancy Rate. We project that the year-round occupancy rate of these housing units will remain at 95% - a reasonable level for a community like ours.

Average Household Size. We project that the average number of people living in each housing unit will continue to decline, but at a slower rate than in the past. By 2015, the average number of people living in each household is projected to reach 2.10 residents.

There has been no creation of any group quarters populations. This group quarters population could include assisted-living and correctional facilities, dormitories, etc (living quarters were the residents do not live in individual housing units).

Mount Desert has a significant seasonal population – nearly half of the housing units in our community are used seasonally as well as the many inns and hotels.

The impact on our community from this seasonal population far outweighs simply doubling the number of occupied housing units. It drives much of the economy, supports many of our community organizations, and generally transforms this island of 10,000 into one of the nation’s meccas of summer recreation.

This seasonal flux creates an enormous challenge. We have to create many facilities and services to be able to handle peak demand, even though peak demand only occurs for a handful of days each year.

Seasonal Residents. Seasonal residents are those that live in the community for five, seven, or nine months of the year. These residents function as year-round residents when they are in town – working, shopping, using town facilities and services, and generally participating in the community as year-round residents. While no accurate count of this population is available, their value to the community cannot be underestimated.

Summer Visitors. Summer visitors are dedicated visitors that enjoy the amenities of the region nearly every weekend and for extended vacations. These residents are dedicated to the community, but often work elsewhere and therefore don’t have the time to fully immerse themselves in the community as seasonal residents do. Many of these residents are candidates to become seasonal residents in the future.

Tourists. This population is made up by vacationers and day-trippers that visit our community primarily between Memorial Day and Labor Day, although this season has been steadily extending into the fall months. This population typically rents accommodations (either on Mount Desert Island or in the region), although a significant number of this population fills the empty bedrooms of relatives and friends who might be more committed members of the community. On peak weekends, we estimate that this tourist population can add as many as 8,000 people to the community (based on housing units, rooms in inns/hotels, and demand changes in the public utility network).

First, the average size of a household in Mount Desert has been decreasing. In 1980, an average of 2.52 persons lived in each household. By 2000, this had reached 2.19 persons (Figure 4). This trend towards smaller households is projected to continue – by 2015 we project that the average household size in Mount Desert will reach 2.10 persons.

This trend towards smaller households is not unique to Mount Desert. Household sizes have been decreasing nationwide for the last 40 years. Several reasons account for this trend, including a trend towards single-person and smaller households in the Baby Boom generation, the increased longevity of seniors, an increase in divorce rates, and the trend for younger couples to wait longer before starting families.

From this seemingly small change in the average household size can ripple larger implications. For example, between 2000 and 2015, this 0.09 change in the average household size translates into a decline of roughly 90 residents (assuming the number of year-round households stays stable). Therefore, just to make up for those ‘lost’ residents, an additional 40 occupied year-round housing units would have to be added to the town’s housing stock.

Because of this, seemingly small population changes can mask significantly larger amounts of change in a community’s demographic composition and housing unit growth.

Second, the number of people living alone in our community is increasing. In 1990, there were 231 one-person households (27% of total households) in our community. By 2000, this number had increased to 300 (31% of total households). Of these 300 households, 125 were occupied by residents over 65 years. This number is projected to increase in the future as our population ages and these households could change the type of services and facilities that should be provided by the Town.

Finally, the ratio of family households (two or more related people living together) has remained stable between 1990 and 2000. In 1990, there were 566 family households. Of these, 205 had families with school-aged children. By 2000, the number of family households had increased slightly to 584 family households and the number of families with school-aged children had increased to 228.

These figures could indicate a contradiction to today’s conventional wisdom that new families are being pushed out of the community by higher living costs. Nevertheless, we observe that that these higher house prices were not noticeable until the late 1990s, so their impact on the community had not been felt by the time of the 2000 US Census. We project that the ratio of family households in the community will decline by 2015.

In 2000, the median age for Mount Desert residents was 43.6 years. Approximately 22% of our residents were under 18 years, and only 13% were between 18 and 34. The baby boom generation – those born between 1945 and 1964 – accounted for 35% of our year-round residents. Residents older than 64 accounted for 18% of the population.

When compared with the state, we have an old population. The median age of the state as a whole is 5 years younger than Mount Desert. Those under 25 account for approximately 33% of the state’s population. In Mount Desert it is 25%. Residents over 55 account for approximately one-quarter of the state’s population. In Mount Desert it is 33%.

In addition, our population is growing older. Between 1980 and 2000, our year-round population’s median age has increased from 36.0 years to 43.6 years. This trend toward older populations is in part due to national trends driven by the aging Baby Boom generation, increased life expectancies, and lower birth rates in younger families. These trends are exacerbated in our community due to its attractiveness as a place to retire and the community’s high living costs.

In the future, we project that this trend towards an older population will continue, especially as more of the Baby Boom generation retires and moves to Mount Desert to live year-round.

Mount Desert residents are well educated. In 2000, 92% of the town’s residents had at least a high school diploma, which was significantly higher than the state as a whole.

In addition, the number of residents with at least a Bachelors degree has increased from 29% in 1990 to 37% in 2000. We project this trend towards higher education attainment to continue in the future, and it could impact the type and quality of services that residents expect from the Town.

In 2000, more than 40% of Mount Desert’s employed residents worked in managerial or professional occupations (Table 4) and another 23% work in sales. Traditionally blue collar jobs – fishing, construction, extraction, maintenance, production, and transportation – account for another 23% of the jobs. The remaining 14% work in service professions.

Comparisons with our community’s historic occupational profile are difficult because the US Census redefined occupations in the 1990s. Generally speaking, Mount Desert residents are becoming more managerial and professional, while residents with service and sales jobs are becoming less common.

Compared with the state as a whole, Mount Desert residents are more likely to have managerial and professional occupations and less likely to have production and transportation occupations.

A very high number of Mount Desert residents are retired. In a survey sent out in 2003, 275 residents indicated themselves as retired, and another 106 indicated that pensions contributed to the household income. This retired population plays an important role in town, as many retirees are able to dedicate their time to serving the town through boards and committees, and through other volunteer services.

In 1999 (the year in which the US Census tracks income data), Mount Desert’s median household income was $41,321. More than one-quarter of our community’s households earned less than $25,000 and nearly one-third earned between $25,000 and $50,000. Twenty-three percent of our households earned between $50,000 and $75,000.

Mount Desert households have higher incomes than the state as a whole. Our community’s median income in 1999 was $4,000 higher than the state’s median of $37,240. In addition, fewer Mount Desert households earned less than $25,000 per year.

Mount Desert households earned more in 1999 than they did in 1989. Median household incomes increased from $31,019 to $41,321 (but incomes remained stable after adjusting the 1989 income to account for inflation using the USDOL’s Northeast-Urban Index).

Median household incomes have increased as the same rate as the state as a whole – Mount Desert’s median household income is 110% of the state’s median. However, median family incomes have increased much more dramatically when compared with the state (109% to 120%).

Not all income is equal. In 2000, Mount Desert households tended to earn a larger portion of their income from retirement income and interest/dividend/rent income than the state as a whole. Mount Desert households tended to earn less wage/salary income, supplemental security income, and public assistance income than the state as a whole.